Statistics, Machine Learning, and Understanding the 2016 Election
Statistics, Machine Learning, and Understanding the 2016 Election
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Samuel Wang, Princeton University
Although 2016 is a highly unusual political year, elections and public opinion follow predictable statistical properties.听I will review how the Presidential, Senate, and House races can be tracked and forecast from freely available polling data. Missing data can be filled in using a Google-Wide Association Study (GoogleWAS). Finally, simple statistics can be used to identify inequities such as partisan gerrymandering, and provide a tool for possible judicial relief. These examples show how statistics and machine learning can deepen an understanding of听the U.S. political scene, even under extreme circumstances. 听Samuel S.-H. Wang, Ph.D.,听Professor, Neuroscience Institute and Department of Molecular Biology, Princeton University